Selection Sunday is March 15, 2026. The tournament tips off March 17. That means you have roughly four weeks to figure out which 68 teams are getting in, who is overseeded, who is underseeded, and where the upsets are hiding. Four weeks sounds like a lot of time until you realize that conference tournaments are about to blow up everything you think you know.

This is where AI bracket predictions earn their keep. While your office pool is arguing about whether Duke deserves a 2-seed or a 3-seed, our models have already processed over 5,000 games this season, weighted every possession, and ranked every team on metrics that actually predict tournament success. Not regular-season success. Tournament success. There is a difference, and that difference is why most brackets are dead by the second weekend.

What the AI Models Are Watching Right Now

Mid-February is the most important data window for tournament prediction models. Here is why. By this point in the season, every team has played at least 25 games. The sample sizes are large enough to be statistically meaningful. Teams have played through injury stretches, conference road trips, and non-conference challenges. The noise from November and December blowouts against cupcake opponents has been filtered out. What remains is signal.

Our NCAAB prediction models are tracking five key indicators right now that historically predict tournament advancement better than seed number alone:

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE): This is the single best predictor of deep tournament runs over the past 15 years. Teams in the top 25 nationally in ADE make the Sweet Sixteen at nearly double the rate of teams outside the top 50. Defense travels. It does not rely on shooters having a hot night. It is repeatable, game to game, opponent to opponent. The AI weights this factor heavily because the data says to.
Turnover Margin in Close Games: Not overall turnover margin. Specifically, turnover margin in games decided by 10 points or fewer. Tournament games are overwhelmingly close. Since 2010, over 60% of NCAA tournament games have been decided by single digits. Teams that protect the ball under pressure advance. Teams that get careless when the score is tight go home.
Free Throw Percentage in February: This one surprises people, but the correlation is strong. Teams that shoot above 75% from the line in February games tend to perform well in March. Free throws win close games. And February free throw shooting is a better predictor of March free throw shooting than the full-season average, because it captures a team's current composure and routine.
Road and Neutral Court Record: Every tournament game is on a neutral court (at best) or effectively a road game (when a higher seed plays close to home). Teams that dominate at home but struggle on the road are bracket busters in the worst way. The AI strips out home games entirely and evaluates teams on their away and neutral performance only.
Conference Strength Index: Not just conference record. The model evaluates how each conference performs in non-conference play, weighing quality wins and bad losses across all member teams. This determines whether a 25-5 record is genuinely impressive or inflated by a weak league.

Conference Power Rankings: Who Looks Strongest

As of mid-February, the AI is ranking conferences based on aggregate tournament readiness. Here is how the picture is shaping up:

Tier 1: Deepest Tournament Threat

The Big 12 and SEC continue to look like the two deepest conferences in the country. The Big 12 has six teams that project as 5-seeds or better, with conference play creating a battle-tested group that has been road-warrior tested all season. The SEC's top-to-bottom strength means even their 8 and 9-seed candidates have played schedules tougher than most conference champions from mid-major leagues.

Tier 2: Traditional Threats

The Big East, Big Ten, and ACC each project to send five or more teams. The Big Ten's defensive identity this season stands out. Multiple Big Ten teams rank in the top 30 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. That bodes well for a conference that has underperformed tournament expectations the past two years. The ACC's resurgence has produced several legitimate Final Four contenders, and the AI is particularly high on teams from this conference that combine guard depth with interior defense.

Tier 3: Upset Factories

This is where bracket pools are won and lost. The Mountain West, WCC, AAC, and Missouri Valley each have at least one team the AI rates higher than their projected seed would suggest. These are your 11, 12, and 13-seeds that are not truly 11, 12, and 13-seeds in terms of quality. They are teams that ended up in weaker conferences but play at a top-40 level nationally.

The AI specifically flags mid-major teams with elite defensive efficiency and low turnover rates. These are the teams that pull off first-round upsets because they make the game ugly, force possessions to matter, and execute in the half-court. Pace control is the great equalizer in March.

Early Upset Candidates the AI Is Flagging

Without naming specific teams (the bracket has not been set yet), the AI is identifying profile types that historically produce upsets:

The Defensive Mid-Major: A 12 or 13-seed from a one-bid conference with a top-30 defensive efficiency rating. These teams win ugly, and in a single-elimination format, winning ugly is winning. Since 2015, mid-majors with top-30 defensive efficiency have won 42% of their first-round games as double-digit seeds.
The Underseeded Power Conference Team: A team from the Big 12 or SEC that lands on the 7, 8, or 9-line despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. These teams are dangerous because their record was suppressed by conference difficulty, not lack of talent. They matchup well against 1 and 2-seeds because they have been playing that caliber opponent all season.
The Hot Streak Team: A team that finished the regular season winning 8 or more of their last 10, regardless of seed. Momentum is real in March. The AI weights recent form at 20% of the overall prediction because the data shows that February and early March performance is roughly twice as predictive of tournament success as November and December performance.

How to Use AI Predictions for Your Bracket

The goal is not to pick a perfect bracket. That is statistically impossible. The goal is to pick a better bracket than the other people in your pool. That means making a few smart contrarian picks where the AI sees value that the public does not.

Here is a practical framework based on what the bracket predictions guide recommends:

Pick at least one 12-over-5 upset: It happens nearly every year. The AI helps you identify which 12-seed has the best defensive profile to pull it off.
Do not pick all four 1-seeds in the Final Four: It has only happened once since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. The AI typically identifies one 1-seed with a weakness (poor free throw shooting, thin bench, or a brutal draw) that makes them vulnerable.
Trust the AI on 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5, and 7 vs 10 games: These are the matchups where public perception diverges most from actual team quality. Seed lines 3 through 10 are extremely competitive, and the AI often sees mismatches that the seedings do not reflect.

NCAAB Picks: 99-Cent Tournament Predictions

NCAAB Picks gives you AI-powered picks for every game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Every round, from the First Four to the National Championship. The model updates after every game, so your predictions get sharper as the tournament progresses.

Most prediction services charge $30 to $50 per month. Some charge more during March because they know demand spikes. We charge 99 cents. One time. Lifetime access. The AI does the analysis. You get the picks. There is no monthly fee, no paywall after the first round, and no upsell to a "premium tier" that shows you the predictions that actually matter.

Get March Madness AI Picks for $0.99 — NCAAB Picks

The Selection Sunday Checklist

When the bracket drops on March 15, here is exactly what to do:

Step 1: Identify the 5 vs 12 matchups. Check which 12-seeds have top-50 defensive efficiency. Those are your upset picks.
Step 2: Find the vulnerable 1-seed. Look at free throw percentage, turnover margin in close games, and road record. One of them will have a crack.
Step 3: Check conference tournament results. Teams that had to win 3 or 4 games in their conference tournament to secure a bid are either battle-tested or exhausted. The AI accounts for fatigue factors.
Step 4: Cross-reference with AI picks. Use NCAAB Picks to validate or challenge your instincts. Where your gut and the AI agree, be confident. Where they disagree, trust the data.

Beyond Basketball: AI Picks for Every Sport

March Madness is the flagship event, but our AI models cover every major sport. If you like what the bracket predictions offer, check out the full suite:

NFL AI Predictions — Game-by-game picks powered by injury data, defensive matchups, and weather factors
NHL AI Predictions — Goaltender fatigue, power play efficiency, and back-to-back game analysis
Tennis AI Predictions — Surface-specific models for clay, grass, and hard court matchups

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Disclaimer: The 99¢ Community and NCAAB Picks are for entertainment and educational purposes only. AI predictions are based on statistical models and historical data. No prediction service can guarantee wins. Please gamble responsibly.

2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: AI Model Rankings Before Selection Sunday