The Sportsbook Prediction Problem
DraftKings is one of the largest legal sportsbooks in the United States, and they do offer prediction-related tools within their platform. These include player prop suggestions, same-game parlay builders, featured bet recommendations, and in-app content from analysts. At first glance, it seems like you are getting prediction tools for free (or as part of a $19.99/month DraftKings subscription). But there is a critical distinction that most users miss: DraftKings is a sportsbook.
Their revenue comes from the house edge on every bet you place. When they suggest a parlay or highlight a prop bet, that recommendation is not designed to maximize your winning probability — it is designed to maximize their handle and hold percentage. Every suggested bet is filtered through the lens of what makes DraftKings money. This is not a conspiracy theory.
It is their publicly documented business model. Sportsbook prediction tools and independent prediction services have fundamentally different incentives.