What is Favorite in Sports Betting?

Favorite Explained in Detail

A favorite is the side the market expects to win. On the moneyline, favorites have negative odds like -150 or -200, meaning you risk more than you stand to win. On the spread, favorites give points, shown as -3 or -7.5. The bigger the number, the more heavily favored the team is.

The public loves betting favorites, especially in high-profile games. This creates a dynamic where favorites are often slightly overpriced because so much money flows to their side. Sportsbooks exploit this tendency by shading lines a half-point or a point toward the favorite, knowing the public will still bet them.

Not all favorites are created equal. Small favorites in the -1 to -3 range are essentially toss-up games where either side could win. Large favorites at -10 or more are expected to dominate. The breakpoint where favorites become less profitable varies by sport, but in the NFL, favorites of -7 or more have historically been poor bets against the spread.

The most important question when evaluating a favorite is not whether they will win but whether they will win by enough to justify the price. A -200 favorite must win 67% of the time just to break even. If the team's true win probability is only 60%, the favorite is overpriced despite being the likely winner. This is the concept that separates profitable bettors from recreational ones.