What is Hedging in Sports Betting?

Hedging Explained in Detail

Hedging is an insurance policy for your bets. The most common scenario is a futures bet. If you bet $50 on the Chiefs at +1000 to win the Super Bowl before the season, and the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl, you have a $500 potential profit at stake. By betting on the opposing team, you can guarantee a profit regardless of who wins.

The hedging decision comes down to risk tolerance versus expected value. Mathematically, if your original bet was positive EV, hedging reduces your expected value because you are essentially making a negative EV bet on the other side. However, the guaranteed profit from hedging has real psychological and financial value that the math does not fully capture.

Parlay hedging is common when the final leg of a multi-team parlay is pending. If you have a 4-team parlay where three legs have already won and the fourth is tomorrow, you can bet the other side of the fourth leg to guarantee profit. The amount to hedge depends on how much guaranteed profit versus potential maximum profit you want.

There is no universally correct answer on when to hedge. If the money at stake is life-changing or would cause financial hardship if lost, hedging is the right call regardless of the expected value math. If it is a normal bet within your bankroll, letting it ride often makes more mathematical sense. The key is making a deliberate, rational decision rather than an emotional one.