What is Same-Game Parlay in Sports Betting?

Same-Game Parlay Explained in Detail

Same-game parlays were introduced around 2019 and quickly became the fastest-growing product in sports betting. They appeal to bettors because they allow creative storytelling: you can build a narrative like 'the Chiefs win by 10+, Mahomes throws 3+ touchdowns, and the game goes over 50' and bet on that exact scenario.

The pricing of SGPs is complex because the outcomes are correlated. In a traditional parlay of independent events, the odds are simply multiplied together. But in an SGP, the outcomes influence each other. If you parlay the over with a team's moneyline, those events are positively correlated because high-scoring games often see the favored team win by more. Sportsbooks build in additional margin to account for this correlation, often resulting in significantly worse odds than the true probability.

The house edge on SGPs is considerably higher than on straight bets or even traditional parlays. Studies suggest the hold on SGPs ranges from 10-30% depending on the number of legs and the specific combination. This makes them poor long-term bets from a pure expected value standpoint, though they remain popular for their entertainment value.

If you do bet SGPs, keep the number of legs small (2-3) and look for positively correlated legs where the sportsbook might not have fully priced in the correlation. For example, a team's alternate spread combined with a player prop for that team's star player creates positive correlation that the SGP algorithm might not perfectly capture.