Moneyline Predictions

NCAAB Moneyline Picks Today

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Today's college basketball moneyline picks — every pre-game prediction sorted by win probability. The AI analyzes KenPom efficiency ratings, tempo, strength of schedule, conference performance, and historical matchup data to project which team wins straight up. Each pick shows the AI's predicted winner, confidence tier, and key factors. For spread picks, see NCAAB ATS picks. For only the highest-confidence plays, see NCAAB best bets.

How College Basketball Moneyline Betting Works

The moneyline in college basketball works the same as any sport — pick the winner, no spread involved. But college basketball has unique dynamics that make moneyline betting especially interesting. With 350+ Division I teams, the range of talent is enormous. A game between a 1-seed and a 16-seed might have a moneyline of -10000 vs +3000. The AI processes adjusted efficiency margins for every team to determine fair value across the entire spectrum.

The biggest moneyline edges in college basketball come from upset value. Because casual bettors gravitate toward brand names (Duke, Kentucky, Kansas), mid-major programs with elite KenPom metrics are consistently undervalued on the moneyline. The AI doesn't care about jerseys or tradition — it measures offensive and defensive efficiency, pace, rebounding rate, and turnover margin to project outcomes without bias.

Today's NCAAB Moneyline Picks (0)

College Basketball Moneyline Strategy

The most profitable long-term moneyline approach in college basketball is targeting underdog value during March Madness and conference tournaments. Historical data shows that 12-seeds beat 5-seeds about 35% of the time, but the market frequently prices them at 25-30% implied probability. That gap between true probability and market price is where consistent profit lives. The AI identifies these mismatches by comparing current KenPom ratings against historical seed performance.

Conference tournament underdogs are another consistent value spot. Lower seeds fighting for their tournament life play with desperation and intensity that regular season games lack. The neutral-court venue eliminates home court advantage, and teams that have already played each other twice have thorough scouting — which often benefits the underdog more than the favorite. The AI factors in motivation metrics, familiarity, and venue neutralization when projecting conference tournament moneylines.

For favorite moneyline bets, the AI identifies games where the implied probability is lower than the model's projection — even among chalk picks. A team with an 80% win probability priced at -300 (75% implied) still offers value. The tier system helps you filter: LOCK tier favorites are the safest moneyline investments, while LEAN tier favorites often aren't worth the juice.

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