Straight-Up Winner Predictions
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Today's NBA moneyline picks — straight-up winner predictions for every game on the schedule. Each pick shows the AI's predicted winner, win probability, and confidence tier. Moneyline bets are the simplest way to wager on basketball: pick the winner, collect if they win. For picks against the spread, see NBA spread picks. For only the highest-confidence plays, see NBA best bets.
Line: OKC -6.5 | O/U: 235.5
Key factors: OKC (45-15) vs DEN (37-22) · OKC puts up 119.4 PPG vs a defense giving up 115.7 · OKC +681 point differential — dominant all season
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Unlock Full Analysis — $0.99The moneyline is the most straightforward bet in basketball. You pick which team wins the game. That's it. No point spreads, no over/unders, no complicated math. If your team wins by one point or fifty points, you win your bet. This simplicity makes NBA moneyline betting the most popular bet type for both new and experienced bettors.
Moneyline odds reflect the implied probability of each team winning. A favorite at -200 means you risk $200 to win $100 — the sportsbook thinks that team wins roughly 67% of the time. An underdog at +180 means a $100 bet returns $180 in profit — the market gives that team about a 36% chance. The key to profitable moneyline betting is finding games where the actual win probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds.
Our prediction model processes over 200 data points for every NBA game. It starts with team-level metrics: offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, pace of play, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate. These four factors (the "Four Factors" of basketball analytics) explain over 90% of team performance variance.
The model then layers in situational factors that casual analysis misses. Rest days matter enormously in the NBA — teams on zero days rest (back-to-back games) win at a significantly lower rate than rested teams. Travel distance between games creates fatigue effects. West coast teams playing early afternoon games on the East coast face circadian disadvantages. The AI quantifies all of these edges.
Player-level data adds another dimension. Injury reports, minutes load management, player efficiency ratings (PER), box plus-minus (BPM), and recent shooting trends all feed into the model. When a team's starting point guard is ruled out two hours before tip-off, the AI recalculates win probabilities within minutes.
The final output is a win probability for each team, which translates directly into a moneyline pick. A team projected at 68% win probability is the moneyline pick. The confidence tier (LOCK, STRONG, LEAN) tells you how much edge the AI sees — LOCK picks at 75%+ confidence historically have the best straight-up win rate.
One of the most debated topics in NBA moneyline betting is whether to focus on favorites or underdogs. The answer depends on the specific matchup and the odds being offered. Heavy favorites (-300 or larger) win often but the payout is small, meaning one loss wipes out several wins. Meanwhile, underdog moneyline bets lose more often but pay out significantly more when they hit.
The AI helps solve this by identifying games where the true win probability diverges from the market's implied probability. When the AI projects a team at 55% win probability but the moneyline odds imply only 42%, that underdog represents genuine value. Similarly, when a moderate favorite has an AI-projected win rate of 74% but odds implying only 65%, the favorite offers positive expected value.
Our confidence tier system helps you filter. LOCK tier picks (75%+ confidence) are almost always on favorites, but they represent the games where the AI sees the biggest edge. STRONG tier picks (65-75%) include both favorites and underdogs with meaningful edges. LEAN tier picks (55-65%) are where underdog moneyline value most commonly appears.
Moneyline picks are the building blocks of NBA parlays. Combining 2-3 high-confidence moneyline picks into a parlay increases the payout while maintaining reasonable win probability. Our parlay builder automatically creates optimized multi-leg parlays from today's LOCK and STRONG tier picks across all sports.
A two-leg parlay of moderate favorites (each around -150) pays roughly +230 — turning a $100 bet into $330. The math works when both picks have genuine edges. Avoid parlaying heavy favorites together (the juice compounds quickly) and never stretch beyond 3 legs for serious bankroll management.