Straight-Up Winner Predictions
NFL Moneyline Picks Today
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Today's NFL moneyline picks — straight-up winner predictions for every game on the schedule. Each pick shows the AI's predicted winner, win probability, and confidence tier. Moneyline bets are the purest form of football wagering: pick the winner, collect when they win. For picks against the spread, see NFL spread picks. For only the highest-confidence plays, see NFL best bets.
Today's NFL Moneyline Picks (0)
No NFL moneyline picks available today.
No pre-game NFL matchups on this week's schedule. Check the full NFL picks for all predictions including live games.
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Unlock Full Analysis — $0.99How NFL Moneyline Betting Works
The moneyline is the simplest NFL bet: pick which team wins. No point spread, no total, no props. If the team you bet on wins the game by any margin, you win your bet. This makes moneyline betting the most accessible entry point for NFL wagering and a staple of experienced bettors' strategies alike.
NFL moneyline odds reflect each team's implied win probability. A -170 favorite implies roughly a 63% win chance — you risk $170 to win $100. A +150 underdog implies about 40% — a $100 bet returns $150 profit. The gap between these implied probabilities and the AI's actual projections is where profitable moneyline betting lives.
How the AI Predicts NFL Moneyline Winners
Our prediction model processes over 200 data points per NFL game. It begins with team efficiency metrics: offensive and defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), yards per play, points per drive, third-down conversion rate, and red zone efficiency. These advanced metrics capture team quality far better than raw win-loss records.
Quarterback analysis is weighted heavily in NFL predictions. Completion percentage, adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), passer rating under pressure, sack rate, and turnover-worthy play rate all feed into the model. The quarterback position has more impact on NFL game outcomes than any single player in any other major sport.
Situational factors add predictive power that pure stats miss. Bye weeks (rested teams historically perform better), short weeks (Thursday games favor home teams), travel across time zones, dome teams playing in cold weather, divisional familiarity, and Monday Night Football performance trends all factor in. The AI quantifies these edges and adjusts win probabilities accordingly.
Injury reports are critical in the NFL where a single player (especially a quarterback) can swing a game by 5+ points. The model tracks injury designations from Wednesday practice reports through Friday final statuses, adjusting predictions as players are ruled in or out. Predictions refresh every 5 minutes to capture the latest information.
NFL Moneyline Strategy: Parity and Value
The NFL has more parity than any other major sport. In a typical season, underdogs win outright 33-35% of regular season games. That level of upset frequency creates consistent moneyline value on the underdog side — if the odds imply a 30% win chance but the actual probability is 38%, that's a profitable bet over the long run.
Our confidence tiers help navigate this parity. LOCK tier picks (75%+ confidence) are rare in the NFL precisely because of competitive balance. When the AI does flag a game at LOCK confidence, the historical straight-up win rate has been strong. STRONG tier (65-75%) captures the sweet spot of confident picks with available edges. LEAN tier (55-65%) is where careful underdog moneyline plays often surface.
One common mistake: parlaying heavy NFL favorites on the moneyline. A -300 favorite only pays +33 per $100 risked. String three of those together and you risk $300 to profit $111. One upset — and upsets happen in the NFL constantly — wipes out the entire parlay. Instead, target moderate favorites (-120 to -180) where the payout-to-probability ratio is healthier.
Building NFL Moneyline Parlays
NFL moneyline parlays are among the most popular bet types each week. Our parlay builder creates optimized multi-leg parlays from the week's highest-confidence picks. A two-leg parlay of moderate favorites (each around -150) pays roughly +230, turning $100 into $330.
For the best results, stick to 2-3 leg moneyline parlays using LOCK and STRONG tier picks. Each additional leg increases the payout but compounds the risk. The sweet spot is 2 legs with strong AI confidence — enough to boost the payout without making the probability unreasonable.