NFL Over/Under Picks Today

NFL over/under betting presents unique opportunities compared to other sports. With only 16-17 regular season games per team and typical totals ranging from 35 to 55 points, every factor carries outsized weight. Our AI totals model processes over 200 variables per game to project a combined score and compare it to the posted total line, identifying games where oddsmakers may have the number wrong.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

The foundation of NFL totals analysis is each team's offensive and defensive efficiency. The AI evaluates points per drive, yards per play, explosive play rate (20+ yard gains), turnover rate, and red zone conversion percentage. A team that scores on 40% of drives playing against a defense that allows scoring on 35% of drives creates a different totals projection than two league-average units. The model adjusts these efficiency numbers for opponent strength, so a team that posts big offensive numbers against weak defenses isn't overvalued.

Quarterback Performance and Passing Volume

The quarterback is the most important single player in football for totals purposes. The AI evaluates QB completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and pressure rate. A matchup featuring two high-volume passing offenses (like Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen) naturally projects higher than a game between run-heavy teams. The model also considers how each team's defense handles the pass — a strong pass rush can suppress scoring even against elite quarterbacks.

Weather: The NFL Totals Wild Card

Weather is a totals factor that barely exists in other sports but can move NFL totals by 3-7 points. Wind is the primary concern — sustained winds above 15 mph reduce passing efficiency and field goal accuracy. Rain and snow affect ball security and footing. Extreme cold (below 20°F) impacts grip and kicking accuracy. The AI pulls weather forecasts for outdoor stadiums and adjusts its projections accordingly. Dome games eliminate weather uncertainty entirely, which is why dome totals tend to be more predictable.

Rest Advantages and Schedule Spots

NFL rest advantages carry more weight than in daily-schedule sports. Teams coming off a bye week have an extra week to prepare and rest, which generally boosts offensive performance. Teams playing on short rest (Thursday Night Football) tend to have lower scoring output and more defensive-focused game scripts. The AI tracks each team's schedule position — divisional rematches, cross-country travel, and the emotional hangover from big wins or tough losses — all of which affect scoring.

Injury Reports and Their Totals Impact

NFL injuries can swing totals dramatically. A starting quarterback going down can move a total by 5+ points. Missing a top wide receiver or a key offensive lineman reduces scoring efficiency. Defensive injuries matter too — losing a top cornerback can open up the passing game and push totals higher. The AI monitors injury reports released on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and adjusts projections as players are ruled in, questionable, or out.

Confidence Tiers for Over/Under Picks

The AI assigns confidence tiers based on the gap between its projected total and the posted line. A projected total of 52 against a line of 44.5 is a strong over signal with a wide margin, while a projection of 46 against the same line is a slimmer edge. LOCK tier totals picks have the widest projected gaps and the strongest historical hit rate. LEAN tier picks show the AI's directional lean on games where the edge is thinner. For the best results over a full season, prioritize higher-tier picks.